SAFX - XCF Global, Inc.

XCF Global, Inc. produces sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — a synthetic kerosene made from non-food feedstocks such as waste oils, fats, and municipal waste — at its New Rise Reno facility in Nevada, which carries a nameplate production capacity of approximately 38 million gallons per year. The company sells fuel on a B2B basis to commercial airlines and aviation operators seeking to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions under regulatory blending mandates and voluntary net-zero commitments. XCF Global is an early-stage, U.S.-focused producer that went public on Nasdaq in June 2025 via a SPAC merger with Focus Impact BH3 Acquisition Company, and has not yet disclosed material annualized revenue from its primary facility. Headquartered in Houston, Texas and founded in 2016, the company's addressable market is domestic U.S. aviation with potential expansion tied to federally incentivized SAF blending targets.

Past Year Trends

• XCF Global's New Rise Reno facility commenced commercial production of neat sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in February 2025, with a nameplate capacity of 38 million gallons per year, and completed first customer deliveries in March 2025, marking the company's transition from development-stage to revenue-generating operations. (Bullish)
• XCF Global completed a business combination with Focus Impact BH3 Acquisition Company in June 2025 and began trading on NASDAQ as SAFX, gaining access to public capital markets while the company was generating $20.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue but posting an operating loss of approximately $67.9M. (Neutral)
• In December 2025 Nasdaq notified XCF Global of non-compliance with the minimum bid price rule after the stock closed below $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days, giving the company until June 8, 2026 to regain compliance; as of May 18, 2026 the stock trades at approximately $0.39, down roughly 61% from the $1.00 threshold. (Bearish)

Next Year Trends

• XCF Global faces a Nasdaq delisting deadline of June 8, 2026, with the stock at ~$0.39 requiring approximately a 2.5x price increase within weeks to avoid delisting absent a reverse stock split or other remedial action, creating significant near-term shareholder dilution or listing risk. (Bearish)
• Ongoing disputes between New Rise Renewables and its landlord over the ground lease for the Reno production facility, and separate disputes with its primary lender over outstanding loans, could disrupt the facility's 38-million-gallon annual SAF output and threaten delivery obligations under the existing Fortune 50 off-take agreement. (Bearish)
• Management issued 2027 targets of $110–$120M in revenue and $65–$70M in EBITDA against a current TTM revenue base of only $20.8M and a gross margin of -18.1%, implying a roughly 5x revenue ramp that, if achieved through the Fortune 50 off-take agreement and facility scale-up, represents a significant upside catalyst but carries high execution risk. (Neutral)

Red Flags

(e) Exchange Delisting Warning — Nasdaq, August 21, 2025: XCF Global received a Nasdaq non-compliance notice for delinquency in filing its Form 10-Q for Q2 2025, with a compliance deadline extended to February 17, 2026 (source: Nasdaq/SEC filing via StockTitan, August 2025). (e) Exchange Delisting Warning — Nasdaq, December 2025: XCF Global received a Nasdaq minimum bid price deficiency notice after Class A common stock fell below the $1.00 minimum required for continued listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market, with a cure deadline of June 8, 2026 (source: Nasdaq/SEC 8-K filing, December 2025).