MU - Micron Technology, Inc.

Micron Technology manufactures DRAM memory chips and NAND flash storage used in data center servers, smartphones, PCs, and automotive systems. Its customers are primarily large OEMs and hyperscalers purchasing memory components in volume B2B transactions tied to semiconductor supply cycles. Micron generates approximately $30B in annual revenue, with significant exposure to Asia-Pacific markets for both manufacturing and sales. The U.S. and China together represent its two largest geographic revenue segments, with data center DRAM now its fastest-growing product line.

Past Year Trends

• Micron's FY2025 full-year revenue grew approximately 50% year-over-year to ~$37.4 billion, with data center memory crossing 56% of total revenue as hyperscaler AI buildout drove DRAM demand well above prior-cycle peaks. (Bullish)
• HBM3E revenue reached approximately $2 billion per quarter by Q4 FY2025, with Micron's supply of 8-high and 12-high HBM3E stacks allocated overwhelmingly to NVIDIA H200 and Blackwell B200 GPU programs, and the company reporting that near-full 2026 HBM capacity was committed to six named customers. (Bullish)
• Gross margins expanded roughly 17 percentage points year-over-year in FY2025 to approximately 41%, driven by HBM3E premium pricing, the exit from low-margin consumer memory production completed by February 2026, and favorable DRAM pricing against a constrained industry supply backdrop. (Bullish)

Next Year Trends

• HBM4 volume production ramp is targeted for the second half of calendar 2026, with samples already delivered to multiple customers; successful qualification at NVIDIA for next-generation Rubin GPU platforms would extend Micron's share of the highest-ASP memory segment and directly compete with SK Hynix's current dominant position. (Bullish)
• Micron's $25 billion-plus FY2026 capex plan — covering Idaho and New York fab expansions plus the newly acquired Powerchip Taiwan facility — creates a significant depreciation and execution risk if AI infrastructure spending decelerates before the additional HBM and advanced DRAM capacity is absorbed by customers. (Bearish)
• U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security shifted high-performance memory export reviews to a case-by-case basis in January 2026, leaving Micron's China revenue exposure subject to administration policy changes; any re-tightening of HBM or advanced NAND export licenses would directly impair a market where Micron previously held meaningful DRAM share before the 2023 Cyberspace Administration of China ban. (Bearish)

Red Flags

No severe red flags identified as of August 2025.