CWST - Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

Casella Waste Systems provides solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services across the northeastern United States, operating landfills, transfer stations, and recycling facilities under the Casella brand. The business model is predominantly subscription and contract-based residential and commercial waste collection, with recurring municipal and industrial customers in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, and adjacent states. Revenue is approximately $1.4B annually, with operations concentrated almost entirely in the northeastern U.S. regional market. The company also generates revenue from organics processing and resource recovery, including selling recovered materials from its recycling operations.

Past Year Trends

• Casella Waste completed eight acquisitions in FY2024 adding over $200 million in annualized revenues, driving total revenue to $1.557 billion, a 23.1% YoY increase from FY2023. (Bullish)
• Adjusted Free Cash Flow grew 23% YoY to $158.3 million in FY2024, reflecting improved internalization of acquired volumes and sustained collection pricing growth of 6.5%. (Bullish)
• Barclays upgraded CWST from Underweight to Equal-Weight in late 2025 while UBS and Raymond James trimmed price targets, reflecting a more tempered valuation view after the stock's strong acquisition-fueled run. (Neutral)

Next Year Trends

• The Chemung County Landfill RNG facility commissioned with Waga Energy is projected to produce 340,000 MMBtu in its first year, with five additional RNG projects targeting 3.5 million MMBtu combined annual output by end of 2026, creating a new high-margin revenue stream for CWST. (Bullish)
• The Mountain State Waste acquisition closed January 1, 2026 expands CWST's footprint into Pennsylvania and West Virginia adding approximately $30 million in annualized revenue, but integration risk and continued debt load from a $255 million two-year acquisition spree could pressure near-term leverage ratios. (Neutral)
• FY2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.97–$1.99 billion at only ~8% growth versus 23% in FY2024 and ~15% in FY2025, signaling a deliberate deceleration as the acquisition pace slows and organic pricing growth moderates toward 4.9%, which may disappoint investors accustomed to hyper-growth comps. (Bearish)

Red Flags

No severe red flags identified as of August 2025.