CNX - CNX Resources Corporation

CNX Resources Corporation is an Appalachian natural gas producer, extracting and selling natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from its Marcellus and Utica shale acreage in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The company operates as an upstream energy producer selling primarily to utilities, industrial customers, and midstream operators under fixed-price and index-linked supply contracts. CNX generates approximately $1.5–1.8B in annual revenue, with operations concentrated almost entirely in the Appalachian Basin of the northeastern United States. The company also holds midstream gathering and water infrastructure assets that support its own production operations.

Past Year Trends

• CNX Resources grew total revenues approximately 18% year-over-year from $1.47 billion in FY2024 to $1.73 billion in FY2025, while operating cash flow rose from $816 million to $1.03 billion over the same period. (Bullish)
• CNX reported Q4 2025 operating EPS of $0.68, beating the consensus estimate of $0.40 by 70% and growing 19.3% from $0.57 in Q4 2024, driven by higher natural gas price realizations and disciplined cost management. (Bullish)
• CNX generated $646 million in free cash flow for FY2025 while reducing capital expenditure from $540 million in FY2024 to $495 million in FY2025, and in January 2026 expanded its share repurchase authorization to $4.45 billion, sending the stock up approximately 5.9% on the announcement. (Bullish)

Next Year Trends

• CNX's 2026 capex guidance of $556–$586 million — up roughly 15% from the $495 million spent in FY2025 — is tied directly to drilling out its Utica shale program, and execution shortfalls or well cost overruns in that program would be the primary downside risk to the $1.31–$1.36 billion adjusted EBITDAX target. (Bearish)
• CNX employs a 'total hedge' strategy that hedges both NYMEX price and basis simultaneously, providing stronger cash flow predictability than most Appalachian peers; if this hedge book holds through 2026, it shields the company's 605–620 Bcfe production guidance from spot natural gas price softness. (Bullish)
• With $4.45 billion in total buyback authorization outstanding and a float that has been meaningfully reduced through prior repurchases, continued aggressive buyback execution in 2026 could provide significant per-share accretion, but the pace depends on free cash flow generation which is contingent on realizing the upper end of the 605–620 Bcfe production range. (Bullish)

Red Flags

No severe red flags identified as of August 2025.